I would choose the fastest storage speed (SSD the more IOPS the better) you can for the XI server/DB.
I think mod_gearman can probably handle it if you have enough external workers but it really depends on your hardware and lot of other factors (storage speed, plugin speed/size, which plugins you're using, etc). It's really almost impossible for us to know because the programs you're going to execute on it (the plugins) are an unknown.
XI prior to 5.7 would likely have trouble with that many but it really depends on what you do for mitigation.
Here's what I send to people who are approaching the need for mod_gearman:
Generally at 10K total combined host/service checks we recommend that you setup a RAMDisk, and at around 20K we recommend you start looking at adding an additional XI server (or gearman) because they can only process so much. Now this may come sooner or later than 20K depending on what type of checks you are running, how much resources they use, your hardware speed, and what you're doing to mitigate the impact.
You can read more about setting up a RAMDisk here:
https://assets.nagios.com/downloads/nag ... giosXI.pdf
You should run this check profiler script and see what long running checks you have and determine what some of your long running checks are, they consume resources the whole time they are running so reducing those helps a lot:
https://exchange.nagios.org/directory/P ... me/details
See here for gearman:
https://assets.nagios.com/downloads/nag ... ios_XI.pdf
https://support.nagios.com/kb/article.php?id=484
NOTE: Make sure that you follow the "Remote Worker Considerations" and the "Host groups and Service groups​" sections from the second link above and then follow the "Disable Worker​" section from the first link once you've setup your exclude groups.
Please read through this doc as well:
https://assets.nagios.com/downloads/nag ... ios-XI.pdf
You can only do so much on a single server, eventually you'll hit a limit, but there are very many things that affects that number so it's almost impossible for us to guess. This is the best you can do:
https://support.nagios.com/kb/article/n ... g-523.html
Let me know if you have any questions or if I can clarify anything.